Boston, Women, and Qualifying Times

Scott S.

With registration for the 2011 Boston Marathon closing out in record time there's been a fair amount of discussion among Flyers and other runners lately that the Boston qualifying times should be changed. Specifically, many have voiced the opinion that the traditional 30-minute gap between the male and female qualifying standards for each age group is “too much”. The elite women finish much less than 30 minutes behind the elite men – doesn’t that prove that the gap is too much?

No, it doesn’t. In order to draw any meaningful conclusions about Boston qualifying times, you must consider a much larger sample than the handful of men capable of running a sub-2:10 marathon and the handful of women capable of running a sub-2:30 marathon. One way to do this is to analyze age group results for a sufficiently large population of both male and female runners.

Paula Radclife and Haile Gebrselassie: Elite men's and women's times are getting closer, but that doesn't mean BQ times should be the same.

I chose the 2010 NYC Marathon, which had 29,000+ male finishers and 16,000+ female finishers for this analysis. For each age group that had a reasonably large sample of finishers I looked at the times for male and female finishers in the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles. Here is a summary of my results:

First, let's look at the breakdown of finishers, just for reference:

Total Number of 2010 NYC Marathon Finishers by Age Group and Gender

Age Group	#Male	#Female	#Total
20-24	699	575	1,274
25-29	2,477	2,639	5,116
30-34	3,857	2,887	6,744
35-39	5,000	2,794	7,794
40-44	5,761	2,801	8,562
45-49	4,289	2,037	6,326
50-54	3,448	1,356	4,804
55-59	1,647	594	2,241
60-64	1,051	271	1,322

Now let's break it down further, looking at the men's finishing times first:

Men’s Finishing Times by Age Group & Percentile

(Faster time corresponds to lower percentile)

Age Group	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
20-24	3:21:04	3:42:11	4:11:53	4:41:24	5:20:21
25-29	3:11:38	3:38:30	4:03:00	4:37:39	5:14:29
30-34	3:16:34	3:39:52	4:06:19	4:39:15	5:12:12
35-39	3:18:53	3:40:07	4:05:45	4:38:44	5:11:38
40-44	3:17:55	3:39:19	4:05:35	4:36:57	5:13:07
45-49	3:22:03	3:44:09	4:10:22	4:43:09	5:17:20
50-54	3:27:39	3:48:12	4:16:13	4:49:14	5:27:10
55-59	3:39:49	4:00:32	4:32:05	5:07:45	5:44:31
60-64	3:47:06	4:09:48	4:42:22	5:23:52	6:09:51

Now compare the above chart to this one for the women:

Women’s Finishing Times by Age Group & Percentile

(Faster time corresponds to lower percentile)

Age Group	10%	25%	50%	75%	90%
20-24	3:42:39	4:06:51	4:33:31	5:07:20	5:49:04
25-29	3:41:25	4:02:22	4:29:01	5:02:35	5:36:48
30-34	3:41:37	4:04:14	4:31:28	5:05:58	5:44:39
35-39	3:45:26	4:08:07	4:35:15	5:07:58	5:46:48
40-44	3:43:49	4:05:20	4:34:49	5:09:01	5:48:26
45-49	3:46:09	4:09:30	4:41:31	5:;16:28	5:55:45
50-54	3:58:03	4:22:17	4:51:35	5:29:37	6:10:34
55-59	4:08:42	4:36:17	5:05:51	5:49:15	6:32:54
60-64	4:17:35	4:44:07	5:24:53	6:09:51	6:47:54

Now, let's refresh your memory regarding Boston Qualifying times:

Current Boston Marathon

Qualifying Standards

(by Age Group and Gender)

Age Group	Men	Women
< 35	3:10	3:40
35-39	3:15	3:45
40-44	3:20	3:50
45-49	3:30	4:00
50-54	3:35	4:05
55-59	3:45	4:15
60-64	4:00	4:30

Here are the two things that strike me when reviewing these results:
1. The 30-minute gap between men and women at the 10% percentile (roughly the cut-off for qualifying for Boston) appears to be justified. Perhaps one could argue for lowering the gap to 25 minutes for the age groups up to 45-49, but I doubt the Boston Athletic Association would want to explain having different gaps for different age groups.
2. The drop-off in qualifying standards across age-group bands is too rapid. The major drop-off in times occurs in the 50-54 band, not the 45-49 band.

Here’s what I would propose as an alternative, with the revisions in red:

Proposed Boston Marathon

Qualifying Standards

(by Age Group and Gender)

Age Group	Men	Women
< 30	3:10	3:40
30-34	3:15	3:45
35-39	3:15	3:45
40-44	3:15	3:45
45-49	3:20	3:50
50-54	3:30	4:00
55-59	3:40	4:10
60-64	3:50	4:20

I realize this proposal is based on the results of just one race in a given year, but since the NYC Marathon has a significant number of finishers in most age groups and is slightly more difficult than the other major Fall marathons, it’s a good starting point (note: I did a similar analysis ~5 years ago for the Flyers newsletter, and if anything, NYC should now be “easier” given the implementation of the wave start in 2009, which I’m guessing more than offsets the now larger field).

What strikes you looking at these results? - Scott S. (The Numbers Runner)


Blogmaster's Note: Along with being our beloved Numbers Runner, Scott is also known across the web for his Sherpa websites: Sherpa Social Media, Fantasy Football and Fantasy Baseball. Check them out and let him show you the way!